3. Budget Forecasting
This chapter is designed for AIDS Drug Assistance Program (ADAP) coordinators who would like information on the Budget Forecasting model offered by the Health Resources and Services Administration’s (HRSA) HIV/AIDS Bureau (HAB).
The Budget Forecasting model has been designed to assist State programs in anticipating program expenditures for budgeting purposes. The forecasting model utilizes eighteen (18) months of historical data, and assumes trends in medication expenditures and client utilization will remain constant. While no available budget-forecasting model can anticipate unforeseen impacts to State ADAPs, it is hoped that this model will assist program managers in avoiding possible budget shortfalls and consequently, the need to implement program restrictions.
Budget Forecasting TOP
The Health Resources and Services Administration's (HRSA) HIV/AIDS Bureau has developed an on-line Budget Tool for States and Territories. This budgeting tool is available via the Internet. The model requests 18 months of historical data, including the:
Additional requested information includes funds used for:
Financial information requested includes:
The Budgeting Tool utilizes a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet to project the unduplicated number of ADAP clients for future fiscal years, as well as the projected expenditures for antiretroviral medications and projected expenditures for opportunistic infection medications. The on-line Budgeting Tool recognizes that antiretroviral medications currently account for approximately 87% of the drug costs to most AIDS Drug Assistance Programs. The Excel spreadsheet calculates, or forecasts future numbers of unduplicated ADAP clients, and drug expenditures, by utilizing the past eighteen (18) months of historical data. By providing data on historical expenditures and unduplicated users, the Budgeting Tool is able to calculate, or predict the future values along a linear trend. This model is designed to assist States in estimating fiscal year expenditures throughout the year, allowing them to determine appropriate funding needs and hopefully, to prevent program restrictions. With each new month of data entered, the MS Excel spreadsheet re-forecasts the projected values.
Forecasting the costs associated with the purchase of pharmaceuticals continues to be a challenge to many States. This is particularly critical as State ADAPs continue to meet the demands of increasing numbers of clients attempting to access AIDS Drug Assistance Programs, coupled with the increasing costs of medications, new medications coming to the market, and the number of medications used in combination or salvage therapies.
Sources Used for This Chapter
HRSA, HIV/AIDS Bureau, Division of Service Systems.